State Election 2021: The three key factors which will decide if Labor or Nationals win the Pilbara seat

Pilbara Four years ago he was Kevin the giant slayer, but now his rivals smell blood. The Pilbara is one of the only seats in WA where there is a genuine belief a Labor member could be turfed, and the Nationals’ Scott Bourne is the man who could do it. MP Kevin Michel’s remarkable defeat of Brendon Grylls in 2017 was a surprise even to members of his own party, but it was fair reward for a well-played campaign focused on hitting the pavement and addressing hyper-local issues. Putting policy aside, three key factors will be at play this weekend. Unexpected preferences from conservative voters flowed to Mr Michel in 2017 because of Mr Grylls’ proposed $5-per-tonne levy on BHP and Rio Tinto. He won’t have that benefit this time around. There’s also the twilight factor — we always look back fondly on former leaders and in Karratha, the Pilbara’s largest voter base, evidence of the benefits of the Nats’ flagship Royalties for Regions policy is everywhere to be seen. In Mr Michel’s favour is the McGowan factor. Nowhere benefited more from the State Government’s efforts to keep the resources industry afloat during COVID-19 than the Pilbara and Labor deserves another four years as a result. Labor’s message to voters is to keep a good thing going. Liberal pick Camilo Blanco has done what he can to drum up anti-Labor sentiment and his preferences could ultimately decide who sits on the iron throne. OUR PREDICTION: LABOR HOLD North West Central Labor would love nothing more than to see Vince Catania vanquished from Parliament. The way he carries himself clearly gets under the skin of ministers and Labor MPs in surrounding regions. But beneath the loud brand of public politics, Mr Catania puts in the hard yards. Few politicians clock up as many miles as he does in visiting his constituents. The sheer size of the electorate works in the incumbent’s favour too. Financing a campaign spanning 820,591sqkm is difficult and the sitting member has the advantage of time. There are a few wildcard factors at play here — namely Mr Catania’s failed deputy leadership bid against Jacqui Boydell, Ms Boydell’s explosive bullying claims against the party, and her subsequent retirement — but these are unlikely to provide enough fuel to turn the tide for Labor’s Cherie Sibosado. The path then is set for Mr Catania to become a four-term MP. An interesting side note will be Exmouth. The Greens have picked local tourism operator Sandy Burt, and support for him could help gauge the mood for industrial development on the North West Cape. OUR PREDICTION: NATIONALS HOLD Food for thought Our communities deserve a member who sees themselves first and foremost as a representative of their constituents, not a flag-waver for their party. Labor candidates in electorates I have covered this time around have opted to provide carefully scripted responses through campaign teams rather than responding directly to questions. Usually it is something along the lines of “Mark McGowan will keep us safe and strong”. This is a far cry from 2017, when Mr Michel’s open and emotionally charged interviews played a key role in his fight to unseat the media-savvy Mr Grylls. There were times he was brought to tears while I interviewed him about issues he cared deeply about, and that helped show voters how much he cared about the region he sought to represent. Is this change in tack enough to sway votes? I suspect not. Should the voters care? Absolutely. For the Liberals, the big concern is a lack of depth. There are a few promising young politicians in the ranks, leader Zak Kirkup among them, but looking across the candidates you’d be hard-pressed to build a ministry as strong as the one Labor boasts. Mr McGowan spent plenty of time in opposition and that helped build him into the leader he is today. Mr Kirkup’s team could benefit greatly from the same experience. The Nationals are pinning their hopes on an old message. It is 13 years since R4R first entered the political lexicon and it is still the backbone of everything they say and do. They tried to move on in 2017 with the iron ore levy, but abandoned that policy last year. Labor’s handling of R4R is wildly unpopular among regional leaders, but there is only so long you can march to the beat of the same drum before people tune out. As for minor parties: One Nation has been quiet this campaign, expect their vote to slide. The Greens will likely know deep down their chances of holding onto a Mining and Pastoral seat with Robin Chapple retiring are slim. And the WA Party — if the election was six months ago they may have found traction, but the hard border-led parochial chest-beating tendencies have receded now.