Australia, UK to ink new AUKUS-side deal, without US, to get nuclear submarine build on track

Australia and the United Kingdom are negotiating a new treaty without the United States, in a bid to keep the $368b AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine program on track.

The bilateral treaty will be supplementary to the broader deal — struck in 2021 — between the three countries, and is set to be announced by Defence Minister Richard Marles and his British counterpart John Healey later on Thursday.

Set to be negotiated in confidence, the ministers believe having a separate strategic and operational bilateral framework will help the two countries focus on the core elements of the submarine deal, and will accelerate the design, build and delivery of the SSN-AUKUS.

The pair are also meeting with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in London for the third annual AUKUS ministerial meeting, with the trio to discuss progress, milestones and the delivery of AUKUS Pillars I and II.

Under Pillar I, Australia will purchase at least three American Virginia-class submarines in the 2030s, while Australia and the UK begin building the new SSN-AUKUS vessels.

The three countries hope the submarines, which will use nuclear power technology from the US, will be ready for use by the UK by the end of the 2030s, and by Australia in the early 2040s.

There have been concerns that the US might fall short of fulfilling its promise to sell Australia three submarines, given domestic production bottlenecks and potential submarine capacity shortfalls.

The current rate of US submarine production annually is between 1.2 to 1.4 and will need to be boosted to 2.33 if Australia is to receive the vessels.

The US says it is investing in shipyards to get production capacity up to the required level in time.

The latest development comes a month after a new trilateral treaty was announced by the AUKUS partners in Washington, which gave leave for greater information sharing with each other.

Meanwhile, conversations are ongoing about collaborating with other countries, including Japan, Canada, New Zealand and South Korea, on Pillar II, which revolves around jointly developing and using advanced technologies like AI and hypersonic weapons.